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What we predicted.
● Track Record · Current as of Oct 28, 2026
What we predicted.
What happened.
Every prediction we have made, on one page — the hits and the misses together, each with its date. Where a team has not yet made a prediction that can be scored, this page says exactly that instead of dressing up a number.
Bottleneck Intelligence
Module page →SIP-2026-001 →Candidates tracked
13 — tracked since Oct 26, 2026
3x Gate passes
0 — no candidate has passed the gate (≥85/100, no pillar under 15) yet
Live calls
0 calls made — selectivity is the strategy. A call exists only when a candidate passes the gate.
Earliest-stage candidate
ABF film / T-glass — Ajinomoto >95% of ABF film; Nittobo ~90% of T-glass
Scoring
Calls, when made, are pre-registered and scored at 6, 12, and 24 months
Status
Not yet scored — no calls to score
Crash Watch
Module page →SIP-2026-002 →Baseline set
Oct 27, 2026 — the reference point every later reading is scored against
United States
AMBER crash risk · GREEN-AMBER recession risk
Eurozone · UK · Japan · China
Eurozone RED-AMBER · UK AMBER · Japan AMBER · China AMBER
Tripwires to RED
High-yield spreads >500bp together with SLOOS re-tightening; or jobless claims >260–300k with the Sahm rule >0.30 and rising
Scoring
Checked and scored daily on weekdays against those tripwires; level changes are dated as they happen
Status
Baseline open — not yet scored
Spring Loader
Module page →All-time record — before the fix
Target-hit rate 4% — targets were set too far from the trigger (record stated in full, not buried)
The fix — Oct 26, 2026
Targets re-anchored to 1.0× ATR(14) from the trigger; backtested target hits 41%
Scoring
Every pick scored over the following 5 sessions; near-misses tracked and scored separately
Status
Forward record accumulating under the fixed target math
Market Lens · CNBC + Bloomberg
Module page →Lessons observed
2 so far — each entered in the playbook as OBSERVED
Scoring
Every lesson re-scored every Friday as CONFIRMED, WEAKENED, or RETIRED — history is never deleted
First scoring
Oct 30, 2026
Status
Not yet scored — first Friday scoring pending
Stock News Watch
Module page →Coverage
Four names under watch — monitored continuously
Labelling record
Every item labelled confirmed or rumour; rumours are labelled as rumours, never amplified as fact
Debunk log
“Arm is an 18A customer” — debunked; treated as noise, and rehashes of it are flagged on sight
Status
Continuous — record maintained daily
Corrections
Corrections Register →Every correction to anything we publish is recorded, dated, in the Corrections Register — no silent edits, ever.