Is a crash or recession coming — and how much warning do we get?

US · Crash — Amber US · Recession — Green-Amber Eurozone — Red-Amber

Baseline as of Oct 27, 2026

The question

Is a recession, crash, or bubble-burst coming — and, more usefully, how much warning do the indicators actually give? A warning system is only worth having if its lead times and false-alarm rate are known in advance, so the founding study measured both across 70 years of episodes.

How it works

Eight indicator families are tracked across five economies — the US, Eurozone, UK, Japan, and China — and graded on four levels: Green / Yellow / Orange / Red. Three framework rules came out of the founding study:

Cross-family confirmation is mandatory — no single indicator family moves a level on its own.
Credit leads equities by roughly a 7-month median historically, so credit families are watched as the earliest tripwire.
The Sahm rule is coincident, not leading — it confirms recessions more than it predicts them, and is weighted accordingly.

Tripwires to RED are stated in advance: high-yield spreads >500bp together with SLOOS re-tightening, or jobless claims >260–300k with the Sahm rule >0.30 and rising.

Cadence

Checked daily on weekdays. Level changes are dated as they happen, and Update Studies mark the baseline against outcomes — including every false alarm.

Current status — baseline, Oct 27, 2026

US · Crash — Amber US · Recession — Green-Amber Eurozone — Red-Amber UK — Amber Japan — Amber China — Amber

The configuration is supply-shock + long-yield + valuation/leverage — not a 2007-style credit-and-labour cluster. The labour and credit channels that defined 2007 are currently quiet, while valuation and leverage measures are at extremes and long yields are elevated.

Studies

SIP-2026-002 — 70 Years of Crashes · Founding Study · Oct 27, 2026

Scorecard summary

The baseline is open and not yet scored — it will be marked against outcomes as the tripwires are tested, in the open. See the full scorecard →