Smurfit Westrock (SW)
Forward P/E is 11.50x against a peer median of 14.98x, a ratio of 0.77x — below the fair range — with trailing P/E 44.12x and PEG 0.36. Latest-quarter revenue grew 1.1% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR): sales are growing, not shrinking, and the cluster median is positive, so the value-trap check does not trigger, though growth runs far below the cluster pace. Delivered demand check: the packaging & containers group's median growth was 12.8% — demand rising, and this company is growing far slower than that pace.
What would change this label: Move to FAIRLY PRICED if the forward P/E rises to about 13.5x or above (0.90x the peer median) at unchanged estimates, or if revenue growth falls below 0% year over year for a quarter. Move to OVERVALUED if the forward P/E rises above about 17.2x (1.15x the peer median) without revenue growth rising toward the cluster pace of 12.8%.
Smurfit Westrock makes cardboard packaging and paperboard used for boxes and displays. Its shares cost about 12 times next year's expected earnings, less than similar packaging companies at about 15 times, though its sales grew only about 1%. On those numbers the shares look undervalued, with the slow growth as the main caution.
Both lines start at 100 on 2024-07-08. Over the full window Smurfit Westrock returned -7.96% and the S&P 500 +38.61% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for Smurfit Westrock: -42.1% (2024-11-22 to 2025-11-20). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.
What the label rests on
Forward P/E is 11.50x against a peer median of 14.98x, a ratio of 0.77x — below the fair range — with trailing P/E 44.12x and PEG 0.36. Latest-quarter revenue grew 1.1% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR): sales are growing, not shrinking, and the cluster median is positive, so the value-trap check does not trigger, though growth runs far below the cluster pace. Delivered demand check: the packaging & containers group's median growth was 12.8% — demand rising, and this company is growing far slower than that pace. The company’s forward P/E is 11.5× against a peer median of 15.0×. Its own history: UNVERIFIED — no sourced range available. Sector demand read: Delivered demand check: the packaging & containers group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 12.8% year over year (SEC filings) — demand rising. Smurfit Westrock's own revenue grew only 1.1%, far slower than that pace. Latest-quarter sales growth was +1.1% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).
| Company | Price (Oct 28, 2026) | Forward P/E | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smurfit Westrock (SW) | $39.64 | 11.5× | 44.1× |
| PKG | $247.80 | 18.4× | 30.6× |
| AMCR | $45.56 | 10.7× | 19.1× |
| IP | $33.56 | 12.4× | — |
| BALL | $62.90 | 15.0× | 17.9× |
| AVY | $181.68 | 17.3× | 19.9× |
| Peer median | 15.0× |
Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.
Sales, profit and cash
Gross margin = gross profit divided by sales, from SEC filings.
Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.
| Quarter | Sales | Gross margin | Net income | EPS (GAAP, diluted) | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Jun 2026 2026-06-30 | $8.0B | 17.4% | $89M | 0.17 | $300M |
| Q/E Mar 2026 2026-03-31 | $7.7B | 16.4% | $65M | 0.12 | $-420M |
| Q/E Dec 2025 2025-12-31 | $7.6B | 18.2% | $97M | — | $612M |
| Q/E Sep 2025 2025-09-30 | $8.0B | 19.6% | $246M | 0.47 | $523M |
| Q/E Jun 2025 2025-06-30 | $7.9B | 19.1% | $-28M | -0.05 | $307M |
| Q/E Mar 2025 2025-03-31 | $7.7B | 20.6% | $384M | 0.73 | $-242M |
| Q/E Dec 2024 2024-12-31 | $7.5B | 19.1% | $146M | — | $212M |
| Q/E Sep 2024 2024-09-30 | $7.7B | 17.6% | $-150M | -0.30 | $190M |
| Q/E Jun 2024 2024-06-30 | $3.0B | 23.3% | $-12,300 | -2.56 | $-177M |
| Q/E Mar 2024 2024-03-31 | $2.9B | 24.2% | $191M | 0.73 | $-208M |
| Q/E Dec 2023 2023-12-31 | $2.9B | 24.5% | $48M | — | $343M |
| Q/E Sep 2023 2023-09-30 | $2.9B | 25.4% | $229M | 0.88 | — |
The last twelve reported quarters. Full 12-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.
Earnings: getting better or worse?
Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.
Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Key facts
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Company (legal name in filings) | Smurfit Westrock plc |
| Chief executive | Tony Smurfit (source: https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-10-28-smurfit-westrock-ltd-stock/) |
| Sector | Materials — Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials — makes paperboard and cardboard packaging for consumer goods and shipping |
| Share price (Oct 28, 2026) | $39.64 |
| Market value (market cap) | $22.3B — share price times shares outstanding of 524,522,908 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding (latest)) |
| Sales, last twelve months | $31.3B |
| Net income, last twelve months | $497M |
| Free cash flow, last twelve months | $1.0B |
| Latest reported quarter | Q/E Jun 2026 (of 12 quarters in the data pack) |
| Six-year price return vs S&P 500 | -7.96% vs +38.61% |
| Worst peak-to-trough fall | -42.1% (2024-11-22 to 2025-11-20) |
What we could not verify
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
- Free cash flow is absent for one or more quarters: either the filer does not separately tag PP&E purchases in its EDGAR cash-flow facts (common for banks), or — for a successor registrant's newest quarter — the cash-flow lines are year-to-date without the prior-quarter rung needed to difference them. Affected quarters are null in the data, never estimated.
- Own-history P/E range not yet compiled for this company in the Phase 1 batch run; the label rests on peer-median, growth and PEG evidence.
- Stats price $39.64 differs -6.82% from data pack Oct 27 close $42.54 (>5% threshold)
- Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.
The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.
Sources
- SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0002005951.json - SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares.
https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002005951.json - Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates.
https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/SW/historical?assetclass=stocks - Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.
Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.