PTC (PTC)
Forward P/E is 23.2x against a peer median of 17.03x, a ratio of 1.36x — above the 1.3x overvalued threshold — and it is the second-highest forward P/E in its peer set, with PEG 2.5 and trailing P/E 18.86x that is actually lower than the forward multiple. There is no growth to justify the premium: latest-quarter revenue fell -6.8% year over year (PRIMARY, SEC filings/EDGAR), while the application software cluster median grew +14.9%. Paying a premium multiple for shrinking revenue is the clearest overvaluation pattern in this batch.
What would change this label: Moves to FAIRLY PRICED if revenue returns to growth of +10% YoY or better for two consecutive quarters while the forward P/E stays near 23.2x, or if the forward P/E compresses below about 19.6x (1.15x the current peer median); moves further into overvaluation if revenue falls again by more than 5% YoY while the forward P/E stays above 23x.
PTC's shares cost about 23 times next year's expected earnings, more than similar software companies at about 17 times — yet its sales actually shrank about 7% in the latest quarter while rivals grew. Paying a premium price for a shrinking business does not add up. On these numbers the shares are overvalued.
Both lines start at 100 on 2020-09-01. Over the full window PTC returned +103.92% and the S&P 500 +118.28% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for PTC: -48.1% (2025-08-27 to 2026-06-23). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.
What the label rests on
Forward P/E is 23.2x against a peer median of 17.03x, a ratio of 1.36x — above the 1.3x overvalued threshold — and it is the second-highest forward P/E in its peer set, with PEG 2.5 and trailing P/E 18.86x that is actually lower than the forward multiple. There is no growth to justify the premium: latest-quarter revenue fell -6.8% year over year (PRIMARY, SEC filings/EDGAR), while the application software cluster median grew +14.9%. Paying a premium multiple for shrinking revenue is the clearest overvaluation pattern in this batch. The company’s forward P/E is 23.2× against a peer median of 17.0×. Its own history: UNVERIFIED — no sourced range available. Sector demand read: Delivered demand check: the Application software group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 14.9% year over year (SEC filings) — demand rising. Latest-quarter sales growth was -6.8% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).
| Company | Price (Oct 27, 2026) | Forward P/E | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| PTC (PTC) | $194.62 | 23.2× | 18.9× |
| TYL | $378.62 | 26.3× | 49.9× |
| FICO | $702.40 | 15.2× | 20.4× |
| TRMB | $63.16 | 16.3× | — |
| ADSK | $241.91 | 18.6× | 31.4× |
| WDAY | $205.46 | 17.0× | 42.3× |
| Peer median | 17.0× |
Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.
Sales, profit and cash
Gross margin = gross profit divided by sales, from SEC filings.
Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.
| Quarter | Sales | Gross margin | Net income | EPS (GAAP, diluted) | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Jun 2026 2026-06-30 | $600M | 81.7% | $119M | 1.03 | $249M |
| Q/E Mar 2026 2026-03-31 | $774M | 85.3% | $591M | 4.98 | $318M |
| Q/E Dec 2025 2025-12-31 | $686M | 82.8% | $167M | 1.39 | $267M |
| Q/E Sep 2025 2025-09-30 | $894M | 86.9% | $348M | — | $100M |
| Q/E Jun 2025 2025-06-30 | $644M | 82.9% | $141M | 1.17 | $242M |
| Q/E Mar 2025 2025-03-31 | $636M | 83.3% | $163M | 1.35 | $279M |
| Q/E Dec 2024 2024-12-31 | $565M | 80.2% | $82M | 0.68 | $236M |
| Q/E Sep 2024 2024-09-30 | $627M | 82.0% | $127M | — | $94M |
| Q/E Jun 2024 2024-06-30 | $519M | 78.4% | $69M | 0.57 | $212M |
| Q/E Mar 2024 2024-03-31 | $603M | 81.8% | $114M | 0.95 | $247M |
| Q/E Dec 2023 2023-12-31 | $550M | 80.0% | $66M | 0.55 | $183M |
| Q/E Sep 2023 2023-09-30 | $547M | 78.8% | $46M | — | $44M |
The last twelve reported quarters. Full 24-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.
Earnings: getting better or worse?
Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.
Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Key facts
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Company (legal name in filings) | PTC INC. |
| Chief executive | Neil Barua (source: http://www.ptc.com/en/about/executive-team) |
| Sector | Technology — Application Software — sells industrial software for product design, lifecycle and service management |
| Share price (Oct 27, 2026) | $194.62 |
| Market value (market cap) | $21.1B — share price times shares outstanding of 108,506,261 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding (latest)) |
| Sales, last twelve months | $3.0B |
| Net income, last twelve months | $1.2B |
| Free cash flow, last twelve months | $935M |
| Latest reported quarter | Q/E Jun 2026 (of 24 quarters in the data pack) |
| Six-year price return vs S&P 500 | +103.92% vs +118.28% |
| Worst peak-to-trough fall | -48.1% (2025-08-27 to 2026-06-23) |
What we could not verify
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
- Own-history P/E range not yet compiled for this company in the Phase 1 batch run; the label rests on peer-median, growth and PEG evidence.
- Brief fetch note: browser.open of the statistics page failed with a 429 rate-limit error; values were recorded from the stockanalysis.com Statistics & Valuation result returned by browser.search.
- Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.
The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.
Sources
- SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000857005.json - SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares.
https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000857005.json - Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates.
https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/PTC/historical?assetclass=stocks - Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.
Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.