Philip Morris International (PM)
Forward P/E is 23.27x against a peer median of 15.65x, a ratio of 1.49x — well above the fair range — with trailing P/E 29.71x and PEG 2.45. Latest-quarter revenue grew 5.5% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), slightly below the group pace, so the premium is not paid for by extra growth and the growth exception does not apply. Delivered demand check: the beverages & tobacco group's median growth was 5.8% — demand steady, not accelerating to support a premium this large.
What would change this label: Move to FAIRLY PRICED if the forward P/E compresses to about 18.0x or below (1.15x the peer median) at unchanged estimates, or if revenue growth rises above 10% year over year for two quarters with the PEG falling below about 1.5. Move to UNDERVALUED if the forward P/E falls to about 14.1x or below (0.90x the peer median) while revenue growth holds at or above 5% year over year.
Philip Morris sells cigarettes and smoke-free nicotine products and grows steadily at about 5 to 6% a year. Its shares cost about 23 times next year's expected earnings, while similar drinks and tobacco companies cost about 16 times. You are paying a large premium for growth that is no faster than the group's, so the shares look overvalued.
Both lines start at 100 on 2020-09-01. Over the full window Philip Morris International returned +156.35% and the S&P 500 +118.28% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for Philip Morris International: -25.8% (2022-02-17 to 2022-09-30). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.
What the label rests on
Forward P/E is 23.27x against a peer median of 15.65x, a ratio of 1.49x — well above the fair range — with trailing P/E 29.71x and PEG 2.45. Latest-quarter revenue grew 5.5% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), slightly below the group pace, so the premium is not paid for by extra growth and the growth exception does not apply. Delivered demand check: the beverages & tobacco group's median growth was 5.8% — demand steady, not accelerating to support a premium this large. The company’s forward P/E is 23.3× against a peer median of 15.7×. Its own history: UNVERIFIED — no sourced range available. Sector demand read: Delivered demand check: the beverages & tobacco group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 5.8% year over year (SEC filings) — demand steady. This company grew slightly slower than that median, at 5.5%. Latest-quarter sales growth was +5.5% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).
| Company | Price (Oct 28, 2026) | Forward P/E | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Morris International (PM) | $203.51 | 23.3× | 29.7× |
| KO | $92.18 | 26.6× | 27.2× |
| PEP | $132.56 | 15.7× | 16.7× |
| MO | $73.68 | 12.8× | 15.5× |
| MNST | $45.48 | 37.0× | 42.1× |
| KDP | $34.68 | 14.3× | 35.0× |
| Peer median | 15.7× |
Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.
Sales, profit and cash
Gross margin = gross profit divided by sales, from SEC filings.
Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.
| Quarter | Sales | Gross margin | Net income | EPS (GAAP, diluted) | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Sep 2026 2026-09-30 | $11.4B | 68.7% | $3.3B | 2.12 | $5.0B |
| Q/E Jun 2026 2026-06-30 | $11.2B | 68.4% | $2.8B | 1.80 | $5.1B |
| Q/E Mar 2026 2026-03-31 | $10.1B | 68.1% | $2.4B | 1.56 | $-752M |
| Q/E Dec 2025 2025-12-31 | $10.4B | 65.6% | $2.1B | — | $4.3B |
| Q/E Sep 2025 2025-09-30 | $10.8B | 67.8% | $3.5B | 2.23 | $4.1B |
| Q/E Jun 2025 2025-06-30 | $10.1B | 67.7% | $3.0B | 1.95 | $3.1B |
| Q/E Mar 2025 2025-03-31 | $9.3B | 67.3% | $2.7B | 1.72 | $-754M |
| Q/E Dec 2024 2024-12-31 | $9.7B | 64.7% | $-579M | — | $3.7B |
| Q/E Sep 2024 2024-09-30 | $9.9B | 66.0% | $3.1B | 1.97 | $3.0B |
| Q/E Jun 2024 2024-06-30 | $9.5B | 64.7% | $2.4B | 1.54 | $4.3B |
| Q/E Mar 2024 2024-03-31 | $8.8B | 63.7% | $2.1B | 1.38 | $-176M |
| Q/E Dec 2023 2023-12-31 | $9.0B | 61.7% | $2.2B | — | $3.0B |
The last twelve reported quarters. Full 25-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.
Earnings: getting better or worse?
Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.
Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Key facts
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Company (legal name in filings) | Philip Morris International Inc. |
| Chief executive | Jacek Olczak (source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_Morris_International) |
| Sector | Consumer Staples — Tobacco — sells cigarettes and smoke-free nicotine products including heated tobacco and nicotine pouches |
| Share price (Oct 28, 2026) | $203.51 |
| Market value (market cap) | $315.8B — share price times shares outstanding of 1,558,655,629 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding (latest)) |
| Sales, last twelve months | $43.1B |
| Net income, last twelve months | $10.7B |
| Free cash flow, last twelve months | $13.6B |
| Latest reported quarter | Q/E Sep 2026 (of 25 quarters in the data pack) |
| Six-year price return vs S&P 500 | +156.35% vs +118.28% |
| Worst peak-to-trough fall | -25.8% (2022-02-17 to 2022-09-30) |
What we could not verify
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
- Own-history P/E range not yet compiled for this company in the Phase 1 batch run; the label rests on peer-median, growth and PEG evidence.
- Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.
The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.
Sources
- SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001413329.json - SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares.
https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001413329.json - Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates.
https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/PM/historical?assetclass=stocks - Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.
Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.