Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
Forward P/E 104.88x against a peer median of 16.52x gives a ratio of 6.35x, and the BUBBLE three-leg test is applied as follows. Leg 1 (ratio ≥ 1.75x): PASSES, at 6.35x. Leg 2 (trailing multiple extreme or earnings thin/absent): PASSES — trailing P/E 169.97x and P/S 77.58x on TTM revenue of about $6.16B against a $477.56B market cap mean earnings are very thin relative to the price. Leg 3 (the price requires demand to accelerate rather than merely continue): FAILS — latest-quarter revenue already grew +92.8% YoY (PRIMARY/EDGAR), so the price can be rationalised, if at all, by that exceptional growth continuing for years; it does not require growth to accelerate above an already near-doubling pace. With one leg failing, the label is OVERVALUED, not BUBBLE. PEG 1.96 also fails the exceptional-growth excuse (revenue +50% or better AND PEG below ~1), so the >1.3x ratio rule points the same way. Delivered demand check: the Application software group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 14.9% year over year (SEC filings) — demand rising, with Palantir growing far faster than its group.
What would change this label: Moves toward FAIRLY PRICED only on a long path: forward P/E compressing below ~35x through delivered earnings growth (not just price falls) while revenue growth holds above +40% YoY; moves to a BUBBLE call if evidence emerges that the price requires growth to accelerate above the delivered +92.8% pace — for example revenue growth decelerating below +50% YoY while the forward P/E stays above ~100x, or forward estimates being cut while the multiple holds.
Palantir sells AI and data software to governments and big companies, and its sales nearly doubled last quarter — genuinely spectacular growth. But the shares cost about 105 times next year's expected profits and about 78 times sales, versus about 17 times profits for similar software firms. That price only works if the spectacular growth continues almost perfectly for years, so the shares are overvalued — though with growth this real, they are not a pure bubble.
Both lines start at 100 on 2020-09-30. Over the full window Palantir Technologies returned +1991.89% and the S&P 500 +129.82% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for Palantir Technologies: -84.6% (2021-01-27 to 2022-12-27). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.
What the label rests on
Forward P/E 104.88x against a peer median of 16.52x gives a ratio of 6.35x, and the BUBBLE three-leg test is applied as follows. Leg 1 (ratio ≥ 1.75x): PASSES, at 6.35x. Leg 2 (trailing multiple extreme or earnings thin/absent): PASSES — trailing P/E 169.97x and P/S 77.58x on TTM revenue of about $6.16B against a $477.56B market cap mean earnings are very thin relative to the price. Leg 3 (the price requires demand to accelerate rather than merely continue): FAILS — latest-quarter revenue already grew +92.8% YoY (PRIMARY/EDGAR), so the price can be rationalised, if at all, by that exceptional growth continuing for years; it does not require growth to accelerate above an already near-doubling pace. With one leg failing, the label is OVERVALUED, not BUBBLE. PEG 1.96 also fails the exceptional-growth excuse (revenue +50% or better AND PEG below ~1), so the >1.3x ratio rule points the same way. Delivered demand check: the Application software group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 14.9% year over year (SEC filings) — demand rising, with Palantir growing far faster than its group. The company’s forward P/E is 104.9× against a peer median of 16.5×. Its own history: UNVERIFIED — no sourced range available. Sector demand read: Delivered demand check: the Application software group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 14.9% year over year (SEC filings) — demand rising. Latest-quarter sales growth was +92.8% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).
| Company | Price (Oct 27, 2026) | Forward P/E | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palantir Technologies (PLTR) | $198.73 | 104.9× | 170.0× |
| ORCL | $130.04 | 15.3× | 20.4× |
| CRM | $242.13 | 16.5× | 22.4× |
| DDOG | $280.37 | 105.7× | 571.6× |
| ADBE | $248.09 | 9.2× | 13.8× |
| CDNS | $336.92 | 35.8× | 67.0× |
| Peer median | 16.5× |
Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.
Sales, profit and cash
Gross margin = gross profit divided by sales, from SEC filings.
Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.
| Quarter | Sales | Gross margin | Net income | EPS (GAAP, diluted) | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Jun 2026 2026-06-30 | $1.9B | 84.7% | $1.1B | 0.41 | $1.2B |
| Q/E Mar 2026 2026-03-31 | $1.6B | 86.8% | $871M | 0.34 | $892M |
| Q/E Dec 2025 2025-12-31 | $1.4B | 84.7% | $609M | — | $764M |
| Q/E Sep 2025 2025-09-30 | $1.2B | 82.5% | $476M | 0.18 | $501M |
| Q/E Jun 2025 2025-06-30 | $1.0B | 80.8% | $327M | 0.13 | $532M |
| Q/E Mar 2025 2025-03-31 | $884M | 80.4% | $214M | 0.08 | $304M |
| Q/E Dec 2024 2024-12-31 | $828M | 78.9% | $79M | — | $457M |
| Q/E Sep 2024 2024-09-30 | $726M | 79.8% | $144M | 0.06 | $416M |
| Q/E Jun 2024 2024-06-30 | $678M | 81.0% | $134M | 0.06 | $141M |
| Q/E Mar 2024 2024-03-31 | $634M | 81.7% | $106M | 0.04 | $127M |
| Q/E Dec 2023 2023-12-31 | $608M | 82.1% | $93M | — | $296M |
| Q/E Sep 2023 2023-09-30 | $558M | 80.7% | $72M | 0.03 | $132M |
The last twelve reported quarters. Full 24-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.
Earnings: getting better or worse?
Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.
Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Key facts
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Company (legal name in filings) | Palantir Technologies Inc. |
| Chief executive | Alex Karp (source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palantir) |
| Sector | Technology — Application Software — data-integration, analytics and AI software platforms for government and commercial customers |
| Share price (Oct 27, 2026) | $198.73 |
| Market value (market cap) | $510.5B — share price times shares outstanding of 2,568,694,000 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding (latest quarter; dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding series is stale for this filer)) |
| Sales, last twelve months | $6.2B |
| Net income, last twelve months | $3.0B |
| Free cash flow, last twelve months | $3.4B |
| Latest reported quarter | Q/E Jun 2026 (of 24 quarters in the data pack) |
| Six-year price return vs S&P 500 | +1991.89% vs +129.82% |
| Worst peak-to-trough fall | -84.6% (2021-01-27 to 2022-12-27) |
What we could not verify
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
- Own-history P/E range not yet compiled for this company in the Phase 1 batch run; the label rests on peer-median, growth and PEG evidence.
- Multiples provenance: the brief's fetch notes record that the direct statistics-page fetch failed with a 429 rate limit and the multiples were taken from the stockanalysis.com statistics result as printed in a search snippet — same source, indirect capture.
- Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.
The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.
Sources
- SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001321655.json - SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares.
https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001321655.json - Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates.
https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/PLTR/historical?assetclass=stocks - Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.
Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.