IBM (IBM)
Forward P/E is 19.21x against a peer median of 14.22x, a ratio of 1.35x — above the 1.3x overvalued threshold — with trailing P/E 21.41x and PEG 2.94. Latest-quarter revenue grew only 4.7% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), so there is no exceptional growth to justify the premium. Delivered demand check: the IT consulting & services group's median growth was 5.2% — demand steady, and IBM is growing in line with that slow pace, not ahead of it.
What would change this label: Move to FAIRLY PRICED if the forward P/E compresses to about 16.4x or below (1.15x the peer median) at unchanged estimates, or if revenue growth rises above 10% year over year for two quarters. Move further from fair value if growth falls below 2% year over year while the forward P/E stays above 19x.
IBM is a large, steady technology company growing at under 5% a year, but its shares cost about a third more than similar companies. Slow growth at a premium price is the problem. It would look fairly priced if the price fell, or if growth genuinely picked up.
Both lines start at 100 on 2020-09-01. Over the full window IBM returned +109.52% and the S&P 500 +118.28% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for IBM: -37.5% (2026-06-02 to 2026-07-22). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.
What the label rests on
Forward P/E is 19.21x against a peer median of 14.22x, a ratio of 1.35x — above the 1.3x overvalued threshold — with trailing P/E 21.41x and PEG 2.94. Latest-quarter revenue grew only 4.7% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), so there is no exceptional growth to justify the premium. Delivered demand check: the IT consulting & services group's median growth was 5.2% — demand steady, and IBM is growing in line with that slow pace, not ahead of it. The company’s forward P/E is 19.2× against a peer median of 14.2×. Its own history: UNVERIFIED — no sourced range available. Sector demand read: Delivered demand check: the IT consulting & services group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 5.2% year over year (SEC filings) — demand steady. Latest-quarter sales growth was +4.7% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).
| Company | Price (Oct 28, 2026) | Forward P/E | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| IBM (IBM) | $251.00 | 19.2× | 21.4× |
| ACN | $241.19 | 16.4× | 17.8× |
| CTSH | $66.38 | 10.9× | 14.3× |
| IT | $218.13 | 14.2× | 19.9× |
| Peer median | 14.2× |
Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.
Sales, profit and cash
Gross margin = gross profit divided by sales, from SEC filings.
Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.
| Quarter | Sales | Gross margin | Net income | EPS (GAAP, diluted) | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Sep 2026 2026-09-30 | $17.1B | 56.8% | $2.2B | 2.30 | $3.7B |
| Q/E Jun 2026 2026-06-30 | $17.2B | 57.7% | $2.2B | 2.27 | $2.4B |
| Q/E Mar 2026 2026-03-31 | $15.9B | 56.2% | $1.2B | 1.28 | $4.9B |
| Q/E Dec 2025 2025-12-31 | $19.7B | 60.6% | $5.6B | — | $3.7B |
| Q/E Sep 2025 2025-09-30 | $16.3B | 57.3% | $1.7B | 1.84 | $2.8B |
| Q/E Jun 2025 2025-06-30 | $17.0B | 58.8% | $2.2B | 2.31 | $1.5B |
| Q/E Mar 2025 2025-03-31 | $14.5B | 55.2% | $1.1B | 1.12 | $4.1B |
| Q/E Dec 2024 2024-12-31 | $17.6B | 59.5% | $2.9B | — | $4.0B |
| Q/E Sep 2024 2024-09-30 | $15.0B | 56.2% | $-330M | -0.36 | $2.6B |
| Q/E Jun 2024 2024-06-30 | $15.8B | 56.8% | $1.8B | 1.96 | $1.8B |
| Q/E Mar 2024 2024-03-31 | $14.5B | 53.5% | $1.6B | 1.72 | $3.9B |
| Q/E Dec 2023 2023-12-31 | $17.4B | 59.1% | $3.3B | — | $4.2B |
The last twelve reported quarters. Full 25-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.
Earnings: getting better or worse?
Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.
Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Key facts
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Company (legal name in filings) | INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP |
| Chief executive | Arvind Krishna (source: https://newsroom.ibm.com/Arvind-Krishna?mhsrc=ibmsearch_a&mhq=Krishna+bio) |
| Sector | Technology — IT Consulting & Other Services — sells enterprise software, consulting and IT infrastructure including hybrid cloud and AI products |
| Share price (Oct 28, 2026) | $251.00 |
| Market value (market cap) | $236.5B — share price times shares outstanding of 945,120,805 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding (latest)) |
| Sales, last twelve months | $69.9B |
| Net income, last twelve months | $11.2B |
| Free cash flow, last twelve months | $14.7B |
| Latest reported quarter | Q/E Sep 2026 (of 25 quarters in the data pack) |
| Six-year price return vs S&P 500 | +109.52% vs +118.28% |
| Worst peak-to-trough fall | -37.5% (2026-06-02 to 2026-07-22) |
What we could not verify
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
- Own-history P/E range not yet compiled for this company in the Phase 1 batch run; the label rests on peer-median, growth and PEG evidence.
- Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.
The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.
Sources
- SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000051143.json - SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares.
https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000051143.json - Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates.
https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/IBM/historical?assetclass=stocks - Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.
Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.