Hormel Foods (HRL)
Forward P/E is 13.57x against a peer median of 12.45x, a ratio of 1.09x — inside the 0.90–1.15 fair range on the multiple alone — with trailing P/E 33.34x and PEG 2.39. Latest-quarter revenue fell 2.4% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR): growth at or below zero, far below the cluster median and with a PEG above 2, moves the label to OVERVALUED despite the near-median multiple. Delivered demand check: the packaged foods, meats & agriculture group's median growth was 5.8% year over year — demand steady across the group, while Hormel itself is shrinking.
What would change this label: Move to FAIRLY PRICED if revenue growth returns above 0% year over year for two quarters and the PEG falls below 2, at a forward P/E no higher than about 14.3x (1.15x the peer median). Move further from fair value if revenue keeps shrinking while the forward P/E rises above about 14.3x.
Hormel sells branded meats and packaged foods. Its share price is close to what similar food companies cost, but its sales fell 2.4% and recent profits have been thin. Paying an average price for a shrinking business makes the shares look overvalued.
Both lines start at 100 on 2020-09-01. Over the full window Hormel Foods returned -58.83% and the S&P 500 +118.28% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for Hormel Foods: -65.0% (2022-04-21 to 2026-10-09). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.
What the label rests on
Forward P/E is 13.57x against a peer median of 12.45x, a ratio of 1.09x — inside the 0.90–1.15 fair range on the multiple alone — with trailing P/E 33.34x and PEG 2.39. Latest-quarter revenue fell 2.4% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR): growth at or below zero, far below the cluster median and with a PEG above 2, moves the label to OVERVALUED despite the near-median multiple. Delivered demand check: the packaged foods, meats & agriculture group's median growth was 5.8% year over year — demand steady across the group, while Hormel itself is shrinking. The company’s forward P/E is 13.6× against a peer median of 12.4×. Its own history: UNVERIFIED — no sourced range available. Sector demand read: Delivered demand check: the packaged foods, meats & agriculture group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 5.8% year over year (SEC filings) — demand steady. Hormel fell 2.4%, well behind that pace. Latest-quarter sales growth was -2.4% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).
| Company | Price (Oct 28, 2026) | Forward P/E | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hormel Foods (HRL) | $20.68 | 13.6× | 33.3× |
| MKC | $45.98 | 14.9× | 8.3× |
| SJM | $125.24 | 12.4× | 58.3× |
| GIS | $33.16 | 10.7× | — |
| BG | $101.10 | 9.7× | 19.7× |
| TSN | $55.62 | 16.0× | 34.4× |
| Peer median | 12.4× |
Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.
Sales, profit and cash
Gross margin = gross profit divided by sales, from SEC filings.
Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.
| Quarter | Sales | Gross margin | Net income | EPS (GAAP, diluted) | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Jul 2026 2026-07-26 | $3.0B | 15.9% | $60M | 0.11 | $172M |
| Q/E Apr 2026 2026-04-26 | $3.0B | 17.4% | $157M | 0.29 | $97M |
| Q/E Jan 2026 2026-01-25 | $3.0B | 15.5% | $182M | 0.33 | $280M |
| Q/E Oct 2025 2025-10-26 | $3.2B | 14.0% | $-56M | — | $231M |
| Q/E Jul 2025 2025-07-27 | $3.0B | 16.1% | $184M | 0.33 | $85M |
| Q/E Apr 2025 2025-04-27 | $2.9B | 16.7% | $180M | 0.33 | $-19M |
| Q/E Jan 2025 2025-01-26 | $3.0B | 15.9% | $171M | 0.31 | $237M |
| Q/E Oct 2024 2024-10-27 | $3.1B | 16.6% | $220M | — | $325M |
| Q/E Jul 2024 2024-07-28 | $2.9B | 16.9% | $177M | 0.32 | $153M |
| Q/E Apr 2024 2024-04-28 | $2.9B | 17.4% | $189M | 0.34 | $176M |
| Q/E Jan 2024 2024-01-28 | $3.0B | 17.0% | $219M | 0.40 | $357M |
| Q/E Oct 2023 2023-10-29 | $3.2B | 16.1% | $196M | — | $217M |
The last twelve reported quarters. Full 24-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.
Earnings: getting better or worse?
Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.
Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Key facts
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Company (legal name in filings) | HORMEL FOODS CORP /DE/ |
| Chief executive | John Ghingo (source: https://WWW.FEEDSTUFFS.COM/agribusiness-news/hormel-names-john-ghingo-next-ceo) |
| Sector | Consumer Staples — Packaged Foods & Meats — sells branded meats and food products, from deli meats and bacon to pantry staples |
| Share price (Oct 28, 2026) | $20.68 |
| Market value (market cap) | $11.5B — share price times shares outstanding of 551,074,000 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding (latest quarter; dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding series is stale for this filer)) |
| Sales, last twelve months | $12.1B |
| Net income, last twelve months | $343M |
| Free cash flow, last twelve months | $781M |
| Latest reported quarter | Q/E Jul 2026 (of 24 quarters in the data pack) |
| Six-year price return vs S&P 500 | -58.83% vs +118.28% |
| Worst peak-to-trough fall | -65.0% (2022-04-21 to 2026-10-09) |
What we could not verify
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
- Own-history P/E range not yet compiled for this company in the Phase 1 batch run; the label rests on peer-median, growth and PEG evidence.
- CEO took effect Oct 26, 2026: John Ghingo succeeded interim CEO Jeff Ettinger
- Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.
The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.
Sources
- SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000048465.json - SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares.
https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000048465.json - Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates.
https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/HRL/historical?assetclass=stocks - Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.
Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.