CF Industries (CF)
Forward P/E is 9.47x against a peer median of 28.18x, a ratio of 0.34x — far below the fair range — with trailing P/E 8.93x and PEG not available (shown as n/a). Latest-quarter revenue grew 17.6% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), well above the cluster pace; revenue is growing, not shrinking, and the cluster median is positive, so the value-trap check does not apply. Delivered demand check: the construction materials, fertilisers, mining & steel group's median growth was 7.5% year over year — demand steady, and this company is growing much faster than that pace.
What would change this label: Move to FAIRLY PRICED if the forward P/E rises to about 25.4x or above (0.90x the peer median) at unchanged estimates, entering the fair band, or if revenue growth falls below 0% year over year for two quarters. Move back toward fair value sooner if revenue growth falls to the cluster median of 7.5% or below while the forward multiple rises above 20x.
CF Industries makes fertiliser that farmers use to grow crops. Its shares trade at about 9 times expected earnings, far below the companies it is grouped with at about 28 times, and its sales grew about 18% in the latest quarter. Fertiliser profits move up and down with crop and gas prices, but on the numbers delivered the shares look undervalued.
Both lines start at 100 on 2020-09-01. Over the full window CF Industries returned +260.79% and the S&P 500 +118.28% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for CF Industries: -49.1% (2022-08-26 to 2023-06-01). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.
What the label rests on
Forward P/E is 9.47x against a peer median of 28.18x, a ratio of 0.34x — far below the fair range — with trailing P/E 8.93x and PEG not available (shown as n/a). Latest-quarter revenue grew 17.6% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), well above the cluster pace; revenue is growing, not shrinking, and the cluster median is positive, so the value-trap check does not apply. Delivered demand check: the construction materials, fertilisers, mining & steel group's median growth was 7.5% year over year — demand steady, and this company is growing much faster than that pace. The company’s forward P/E is 9.5× against a peer median of 28.2×. Its own history: UNVERIFIED — no sourced range available. Sector demand read: Delivered demand check: the construction materials, fertilisers, mining & steel group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 7.5% year over year (SEC filings) — demand steady. This company grew 17.6%, much faster than the group median. Latest-quarter sales growth was +17.6% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).
| Company | Price (Oct 28, 2026) | Forward P/E | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF Industries (CF) | $120.02 | 9.5× | 8.9× |
| MLM | $506.99 | 28.2× | 12.5× |
| MOS | $18.51 | 29.9× | — |
| VMC | $263.76 | 28.6× | 31.1× |
| STLD | $243.48 | 10.8× | 18.0× |
| CRH | $86.46 | 15.3× | 15.2× |
| Peer median | 28.2× |
Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.
Sales, profit and cash
Gross margin = gross profit divided by sales, from SEC filings.
Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.
| Quarter | Sales | Gross margin | Net income | EPS (GAAP, diluted) | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Jun 2026 2026-06-30 | $2.2B | 51.5% | $727M | 4.73 | $607M |
| Q/E Mar 2026 2026-03-31 | $2.0B | 37.6% | $615M | 3.98 | $273M |
| Q/E Dec 2025 2025-12-31 | $1.9B | 40.9% | $404M | — | $313M |
| Q/E Sep 2025 2025-09-30 | $1.7B | 38.1% | $353M | 2.19 | $717M |
| Q/E Jun 2025 2025-06-30 | $1.9B | 40.0% | $386M | 2.37 | $318M |
| Q/E Mar 2025 2025-03-31 | $1.7B | 34.4% | $312M | 1.85 | $454M |
| Q/E Dec 2024 2024-12-31 | $1.5B | 34.4% | $328M | — | $223M |
| Q/E Sep 2024 2024-09-30 | $1.4B | 32.4% | $276M | 1.55 | $792M |
| Q/E Jun 2024 2024-06-30 | $1.6B | 43.2% | $420M | 2.30 | $391M |
| Q/E Mar 2024 2024-03-31 | $1.5B | 27.8% | $194M | 1.03 | $347M |
| Q/E Dec 2023 2023-12-31 | $1.6B | 31.9% | $274M | — | $292M |
| Q/E Sep 2023 2023-09-30 | $1.3B | 29.6% | $164M | 0.85 | $471M |
The last twelve reported quarters. Full 24-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.
Earnings: getting better or worse?
Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.
Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Key facts
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Company (legal name in filings) | CF Industries Holdings, Inc. |
| Chief executive | Christopher D. Bohn (source: https://opportunity.businessroundtable.org/about-us/members/christopher-d.-bohn) |
| Sector | Materials — Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals — makes nitrogen fertiliser and related products for farmers |
| Share price (Oct 28, 2026) | $120.02 |
| Market value (market cap) | $18.2B — share price times shares outstanding of 151,338,130 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding (latest)) |
| Sales, last twelve months | $7.7B |
| Net income, last twelve months | $2.1B |
| Free cash flow, last twelve months | $1.9B |
| Latest reported quarter | Q/E Jun 2026 (of 24 quarters in the data pack) |
| Six-year price return vs S&P 500 | +260.79% vs +118.28% |
| Worst peak-to-trough fall | -49.1% (2022-08-26 to 2023-06-01) |
What we could not verify
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
- Own-history P/E range not yet compiled for this company in the Phase 1 batch run; the label rests on peer-median, growth and PEG evidence.
- PEG ratio was shown as n/a on the statistics page, so no PEG evidence is used in this label.
- Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.
The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.
Sources
- SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001324404.json - SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares.
https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001324404.json - Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates.
https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/CF/historical?assetclass=stocks - Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.
Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.