Carnival (CCL)
Forward P/E is 11.71x against a peer median of 13.42x, a ratio of 0.87x — below the fair range — with trailing P/E 12.27x and PEG 1.09. Latest-quarter revenue grew 3.5% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR): growth is positive, so the value-trap check does not apply — revenue is not shrinking and the cluster median is not negative — even though the pace is below the cluster median. Delivered demand check: the travel, hotels, casinos & cruises group's median growth was 6.6% year over year — demand steady, and this company is growing more slowly than that median.
What would change this label: Move to FAIRLY PRICED if the forward P/E rises to about 12.1x or above (0.90x the peer median) at unchanged estimates, or if revenue growth falls to 0% or below for two quarters. Move to OVERVALUED if the forward P/E rises above about 15.4x (1.15x the peer median) at unchanged estimates.
Carnival runs cruise ships sailing holiday voyages across several brands. Its shares cost about 12 times next year's expected earnings, less than similar companies at about 13 times, while its sales grew about 4%. The price looks modestly undervalued, with slower growth the main reason for the discount.
Both lines start at 100 on 2020-09-01. Over the full window Carnival returned +68.02% and the S&P 500 +118.28% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for Carnival: -79.6% (2021-06-02 to 2022-10-10). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.
What the label rests on
Forward P/E is 11.71x against a peer median of 13.42x, a ratio of 0.87x — below the fair range — with trailing P/E 12.27x and PEG 1.09. Latest-quarter revenue grew 3.5% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR): growth is positive, so the value-trap check does not apply — revenue is not shrinking and the cluster median is not negative — even though the pace is below the cluster median. Delivered demand check: the travel, hotels, casinos & cruises group's median growth was 6.6% year over year — demand steady, and this company is growing more slowly than that median. The company’s forward P/E is 11.7× against a peer median of 13.4×. Its own history: UNVERIFIED — no sourced range available. Sector demand read: Delivered demand check: the travel, hotels, casinos & cruises group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 6.6% year over year (SEC filings) — demand steady. This company grew more slowly than the group, at 3.5%. Latest-quarter sales growth was +3.5% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).
| Company | Price (Oct 28, 2026) | Forward P/E | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carnival (CCL) | $27.84 | 11.7× | 12.3× |
| EXPE | $275.44 | 12.1× | 17.1× |
| LVS | $35.92 | 12.0× | 14.7× |
| WYNN | $71.58 | 17.9× | 17.2× |
| NCLH | $15.82 | 13.4× | 10.0× |
| MGM | $28.33 | 21.7× | 17.7× |
| Peer median | 13.4× |
Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.
Sales, profit and cash
This company does not report a gross-profit line in its SEC facts (normal for banks, payment networks and some health insurers), so profit is shown as net income instead — gross margin is marked UNVERIFIED-absent rather than estimated.
Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.
| Quarter | Sales | Gross margin | Net income | EPS (GAAP, diluted) | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Aug 2026 2026-08-31 | $8.4B | — | $1.9B | 1.40 | $712M |
| Q/E May 2026 2026-05-31 | $6.7B | — | $537M | 0.39 | $1.8B |
| Q/E Feb 2026 2026-02-28 | $6.2B | — | $258M | 0.19 | $697M |
| Q/E Nov 2025 2025-11-30 | $6.3B | — | $422M | — | $12M |
| Q/E Aug 2025 2025-08-31 | $8.2B | — | $1.9B | 1.33 | $736M |
| Q/E May 2025 2025-05-31 | $6.3B | — | $565M | 0.42 | $1.5B |
| Q/E Feb 2025 2025-02-28 | $5.8B | — | $-78M | -0.06 | $318M |
| Q/E Nov 2024 2024-11-30 | $5.9B | — | $303M | — | $319M |
| Q/E Aug 2024 2024-08-31 | $7.9B | — | $1.7B | 1.26 | $628M |
| Q/E May 2024 2024-05-31 | $5.8B | — | $92M | 0.07 | $720M |
| Q/E Feb 2024 2024-02-29 | $5.4B | — | $-214M | -0.17 | $-370M |
| Q/E Nov 2023 2023-11-30 | $5.4B | — | $-48M | — | $247M |
The last twelve reported quarters. Full 24-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.
Earnings: getting better or worse?
Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.
Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Key facts
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Company (legal name in filings) | Carnival Corp Ltd. |
| Chief executive | Josh Weinstein (source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnival_Corporation) |
| Sector | Consumer Discretionary — Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines — operates cruise ships sailing holiday voyages across several cruise brands |
| Share price (Oct 28, 2026) | $27.84 |
| Market value (market cap) | $37.3B — share price times shares outstanding of 1,344,610,129 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding (latest)) |
| Sales, last twelve months | $27.6B |
| Net income, last twelve months | $3.1B |
| Free cash flow, last twelve months | $3.2B |
| Latest reported quarter | Q/E Aug 2026 (of 24 quarters in the data pack) |
| Six-year price return vs S&P 500 | +68.02% vs +118.28% |
| Worst peak-to-trough fall | -79.6% (2021-06-02 to 2022-10-10) |
What we could not verify
- Gross profit / gross margin: not tagged as a standalone line in this company's EDGAR company facts (common for banks, payment networks and some healthcare payers) — shown as UNVERIFIED-absent; the page charts revenue and net income instead.
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
- Own-history P/E range not yet compiled for this company in the Phase 1 batch run; the label rests on peer-median, growth and PEG evidence.
- Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.
The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.
Sources
- SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000815097.json - SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares.
https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000815097.json - Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates.
https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/CCL/historical?assetclass=stocks - Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.
Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.