Caterpillar (CAT)
Forward P/E 24.60x (SECONDARY, stockanalysis.com) is only ~7% above the peer median of 23.03x, and PEG 1.34 is below the peer median (~1.48), on delivered growth - latest-quarter revenue +24.0% YoY and EPS +68% YoY (primary, EDGAR). The stock has already de-rated -35.5% from its Jun 30, 2026 peak close of $1,064.90, though trailing P/E 30.74x remains above its own 3Y (~27.5x) and 5Y (~25.6x) averages and current earnings are cyclically strong, which caps the call at fair rather than cheap.
What would change this label: Revenue growth below +5% YoY for two consecutive quarters while the forward P/E holds above ~24x -> OVERVALUED; sustained forward-EPS upgrades compressing the forward P/E below ~20x at this price -> UNDERVALUED review.
Caterpillar's shares cost about the same, relative to expected earnings, as its machinery rivals - and a bit less once its faster recent growth is counted. Business is strong: sales rose 24% and profit per share rose 68% in the latest quarter, helped by power equipment for AI data centres. The shares have already fallen about a third from their June peak, so the price looks fair - neither a bargain nor stretched - as long as today's strong earnings are not the top of the cycle.
Both lines start at 100 on 2020-09-01. Over the full window Caterpillar returned +388.40% and the S&P 500 +118.28% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for Caterpillar: -35.5% (2026-06-30 to 2026-10-23). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.
What the label rests on
Forward P/E 24.60x (SECONDARY, stockanalysis.com) is only ~7% above the peer median of 23.03x, and PEG 1.34 is below the peer median (~1.48), on delivered growth - latest-quarter revenue +24.0% YoY and EPS +68% YoY (primary, EDGAR). The stock has already de-rated -35.5% from its Jun 30, 2026 peak close of $1,064.90, though trailing P/E 30.74x remains above its own 3Y (~27.5x) and 5Y (~25.6x) averages and current earnings are cyclically strong, which caps the call at fair rather than cheap. The company’s forward P/E is 24.6× against a peer median of 23.0×. Its own history: Trailing P/E 30.74x vs 12-month average ~36.2x, 3-year average ~27.5x and 5-year average ~25.6x (financecharts.com, SECONDARY, Oct 27 2026) - above its 3Y/5Y averages, below its 12-month average after the pullback. Sector demand read: Demand rising - latest-quarter revenue +24.0% YoY (primary) on construction, mining and AI data-centre power demand; the stock has already de-rated -35.5% from its Jun 2026 peak into this snapshot. Latest-quarter sales growth was +24.0% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).
| Company | Price (Oct 27, 2026) | Forward P/E | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar (CAT) | $713.31 | 24.6× | 30.7× |
| DE | $639.58 | 30.4× | 35.6× |
| CMI | $530.61 | 16.1× | 27.1× |
| PCAR | $103.73 | 15.7× | 19.8× |
| HON | $218.81 | 23.0× | 9.9× |
| EMR | $166.27 | 23.4× | 36.4× |
| Peer median | 23.0× |
Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.
Sales, profit and cash
Gross margin = gross profit divided by sales, from SEC filings. Gross profit basis: tagged GrossProfit where present; otherwise computed as revenue minus CostOfRevenue (both EDGAR-tagged; the filer retired the GrossProfit tag mid-window).
Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.
| Quarter | Sales | Gross margin | Net income | EPS (GAAP, diluted) | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Jun 2026 2026-06-30 | $20.5B | 37.8% | $3.6B | 7.77 | $3.8B |
| Q/E Mar 2026 2026-03-31 | $17.4B | 35.1% | $2.5B | 5.47 | $1.1B |
| Q/E Dec 2025 2025-12-31 | $19.1B | 30.4% | $2.4B | — | $2.7B |
| Q/E Sep 2025 2025-09-30 | $17.6B | 33.8% | $2.3B | 4.88 | $3.1B |
| Q/E Jun 2025 2025-06-30 | $16.6B | 34.8% | $2.2B | 4.62 | $2.6B |
| Q/E Mar 2025 2025-03-31 | $14.2B | 37.1% | $2.0B | 4.20 | $579M |
| Q/E Dec 2024 2024-12-31 | $16.2B | 36.4% | $2.8B | — | $2.7B |
| Q/E Sep 2024 2024-09-30 | $16.1B | 37.5% | $2.5B | 5.06 | $3.1B |
| Q/E Jun 2024 2024-06-30 | $16.7B | 39.2% | $2.7B | 5.48 | $2.7B |
| Q/E Mar 2024 2024-03-31 | $15.8B | 38.8% | $2.9B | 5.75 | $1.6B |
| Q/E Dec 2023 2023-12-31 | $17.1B | 35.5% | $2.7B | — | $3.5B |
| Q/E Sep 2023 2023-09-30 | $16.8B | 37.0% | $2.8B | 5.45 | $3.7B |
The last twelve reported quarters. Full 24-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.
Earnings: getting better or worse?
Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.
Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Key facts
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Company (legal name in filings) | CATERPILLAR INC |
| Chief executive | Joseph E. (Joe) Creed (source: Business Roundtable member profile ('Joseph E. (Joe) Creed is chairman and chief executive officer (CEO) of Caterpillar Inc.'), fetched via search Oct 28, 2026; corroborated by Simply Wall St leadership page (CEO from May 1, 2025; chairman from Apr 1, 2026)) |
| Sector | Industrials — Industrials - heavy machinery (construction, mining, energy & transportation power) |
| Share price (Oct 27, 2026) | $713.31 |
| Market value (market cap) | $327.9B — share price times shares outstanding of 459,674,889 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding (latest)) |
| Sales, last twelve months | $74.7B |
| Net income, last twelve months | $10.8B |
| Free cash flow, last twelve months | $10.7B |
| Latest reported quarter | Q/E Jun 2026 (of 24 quarters in the data pack) |
| Six-year price return vs S&P 500 | +388.40% vs +118.28% |
| Worst peak-to-trough fall | -35.5% (2026-06-30 to 2026-10-23) |
What we could not verify
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
- Peer multiples (DE, CMI, PCAR, HON, EMR): direct fetches of the stockanalysis.com statistics pages were rate-limited (HTTP 429) on Oct 28, 2026; figures captured from search-result renderings of the same stockanalysis.com pages (Oct 27 closes) - same source, indirect fetch
- HON trailing P/E of 9.90x appears distorted on the aggregator (TTM EPS $22.10 vs far lower forward-implied earnings); peer median and label use forward P/E only
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from SEC EDGAR company facts (standalone Q4 EPS not tagged); trailing P/E rests on the aggregator's TTM EPS of $23.21 (SECONDARY)
- Forward P/E by fiscal year not pulled from the aggregator forecast page; headline statistics-page forward P/E used
- Own-history P/E averages are a single secondary source (financecharts.com, CAT figures as rendered in its CMI comparison dated Oct 27, 2026)
- Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.
The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.
Sources
- SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000018230.json - SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares.
https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000018230.json - Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates.
https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/CAT/historical?assetclass=stocks - Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.
Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.